Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE OBSERVED. THE LARGEST, AN M7/2B FLARE FROM REGION 8766 (N17E21), OCCURRED AT 0957Z. TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS, A 390 SFU TENFLARE, AND OTHER DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THE SECOND FLARE, AN M2/1N FROM REGION 8765 (S11E08), PEAKED AT 16/2124Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SAW NUMEROUS C-CLASS SUBFLARES SUPERIMPOSED ON AN ELEVATED BACKGROUND FLUX LEVEL OF NEARLY C2. REGION 8765 ATTAINED A WHITE-LIGHT AREA OF 1190 MILLIONTHS AND REMAINS A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA GROUP. NEW REGION 8771 (S14W33) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. BOTH REGIONS 8765 AND 8766 HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8768.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. BY DAYS TWO AND THREE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CME EFFECTS. PARTIAL HALO CMES WERE OBSERVED ON SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY YESTERDAY AND TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY PRODUCED RADIO CME SIGNATURES.
III. Event Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
Class M90%90%90%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 NOV 221
  Predicted   18 NOV-20 NOV  215/200/195
  90 Day Mean        17 NOV 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV  011/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  011/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  012/012-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/20M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024142.7 -23.8
Last 30 days156.1 +4.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
11998X5.37
21998X3.59
32001X1.41
42001M5.51
51998M2.7
DstG
11991-139G2
21982-114G2
31975-97G2
42003-87G2
51960-76G2
*since 1994

Social networks