Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8771 (S15W85) PRODUCED AN M3/SN AT 28/0146UT AND AN M1/SF AT 28/0557UT. LIMB OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THIS REGION WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE WHICH STARTED AT 28/1800UT AND PEAKED AT 1917UT. LIMB PROXIMITY IS MAKING OBSERVATIONS OF THIS REGION DIFFICULT. A NUMBER OF OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS PRODUCED SMALL FLARES, INCLUDING 8773 (S12W71), 8778 (S14W33), AND 8781 (S13E22).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE WITH A CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8771 BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DEPARTS THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME ON NOV 26 AND/OR A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
III. Event Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
Class M60%50%40%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 NOV 175
  Predicted   29 NOV-01 DEC  160/150/145
  90 Day Mean        28 NOV 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  010/012-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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