Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 December 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY PERSISTS AT THE LOW LEVEL. AN UNASSOCIATED C5 AT 1012Z WAS THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT. REGION 8782 (N11W68) HAD FREQUENT SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8781 (S12W29) ALSO CONTRIBUTED AN OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARE. THE DISK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A NUMBER OF SMALL EMERGING SUNSPOT GROUPS, DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT ALL HELIOLONGITUDES. ALL ARE IN A RUDIMENTARY STAGE NOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN INCREASE IN FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IF ANY OF THE EMERGING ACTIVE CENTERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM, EMANATING FROM A LARGE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE, SHOULD CAUSE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 03 DEC to 05 DEC
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 DEC 166
  Predicted   03 DEC-05 DEC  170/180/190
  90 Day Mean        02 DEC 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC  005/005-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 DEC to 05 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%40%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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