Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 December 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. JUST INFREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8788 IS STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THE FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET. NEW REGION 8791 (S13E68) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. FORMER REGION 8765 IS DUE TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 24-HOURS AND COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE THE LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. A FULL-HALO CME DETECTED BY THE LASCO SPACECRAFT ON DECEMBER 6TH COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE GEOMAGNETIC AFFECTS ON DECEMBER 8-9.
III. Event Probabilities 08 DEC to 10 DEC
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 DEC 153
  Predicted   08 DEC-10 DEC  165/180/190
  90 Day Mean        07 DEC 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 DEC  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 DEC  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 DEC-10 DEC  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 DEC to 10 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%50%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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