Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 December 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. MINOR FLARES HAVE CONTINUED IN ACTIVE REGIONS 8798 (S13W05) AND 8806 (N19E50). A TYPE II RADIO BURST, UNASSOCIATED WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY, WAS REPORTED AT 19/1231Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9798 AND 8806 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MINOR EVENTS. REGION 8798 HAS A MORE COMPLEX STRUCTURE WHILE REGION 8806 HAS A LARGE, COMPLEX SPOT GROUP OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY BUT IT DOES NOT YET HAVE AS WELL DEVELOPED PLAGE STRUCTURE AND COMPLEXITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE IT MAY REACH ACTIVE LEVELS LATE IN THE THREE-DAY PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 20 DEC to 22 DEC
Class M45%50%50%
Class X15%20%20%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 DEC 207
  Predicted   20 DEC-22 DEC  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        19 DEC 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 DEC  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 DEC  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 DEC-22 DEC  006/006-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 DEC to 22 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm02%02%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active12%10%10%
Minor storm03%03%06%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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