Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS WERE OBSERVED WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATION. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN REGION 8824 (S13W16) DURING THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER REGIONS WERE STABLE OR SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD THEN DECREASED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JAN to 19 JAN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 JAN 208
  Predicted   17 JAN-19 JAN  210/210/205
  90 Day Mean        16 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JAN to 19 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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