Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N27W10) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C7/1N LONG-DURATION EVENT PEAKING AT 10/0208UT. THE FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II SWEEP AND DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 240 SFU AT 2695 MHZ AND 3400 SFU AT 245 MHZ. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGIONS 8869 (S25E70) AND 8870 (N20E77) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8858.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS DUE TO FLARE/CME ACTIVITY WHICH OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 9.
III. Event Probabilities 11 FEB to 13 FEB
Class M50%50%50%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 FEB 176
  Predicted   11 FEB-13 FEB  176/176/174
  90 Day Mean        10 FEB 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB  010/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB  010/015-015/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 FEB to 13 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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