Viewing archive of Monday, 28 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NO MORE THAN CLASS C
FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND
CONDITIONS REMAIN TYPICAL OF THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL HOLE.
VELOCITIES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 600 TO 700 KM PER SECOND RANGE.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
OFF-AXIS EFFECTS OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 26 FEBRUARY AND A
TYPE II SHOCK REPORTED AT 28/1027 Z HAVE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
ALERT THRESHOLD FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 29 FEB to 02 MAR
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 FEB 219 Predicted 29 FEB-02 MAR 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 28 FEB 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB 012/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 FEB-02 MAR 012/010-012/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 FEB to 02 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 07% | 06% | 06% |
| Minor storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 09% | 07% | 08% |
| Minor storm | 04% | 04% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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