Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C9/2F
FROM REGION 9002 (N20W37). THIS REGION, DESPITE OBVIOUS DECAY IN
WHITE LIGHT, EMERGED AS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK
AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL FLARES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. A SPOTLESS, UNNUMBERED REGION NEAR N07W05 PRODUCED A C5/1N
AT 23/1106Z. REGION 8996 (S20W77) CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, BUT
ALL FLARE ACTIVITY WAS IN THE LOW C-CLASS CATEGORY. REGION 9004
(N12W48) EXHIBITED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE BUT DEVELOPED INCREASED
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 23/1945Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 9002 AND 9004 MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PRECEDED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED AT ACE AT
23/1625Z. THE ACE SIGNATURE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A GEOEFFECTIVE
TRANSIENT THAT LIKELY ORIGINATED FROM THE C7/1N FLARE AND CME AT
20/0535Z. BZ INITIALLY WENT NORTHWARD, BUT QUICKLY TURNED SOUTHWARD
AT 23/1830Z REACHING NEAR -20NT AND RESULTING IN MINOR STORMING AT
HIGH LATITUDES. BZ RETURNED TO MORE NOMINAL CONDITIONS BY END OF
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAY ONE FOLLOWING TODAY'S SHOCK
ARRIVAL. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
DAYS 2 AND 3.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 MAY 204 Predicted 24 MAY-26 MAY 195/185/180 90 Day Mean 23 MAY 197
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY 017/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY 018/018-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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