Viewing archive of Friday, 26 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED IN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. REGION 9002 (N20W79) WAS THE MOST
ACTIVE AREA ON THE VISIBLE DISK. NEW REGIONS 9018 (S20W11) AND 9019
(S34W38) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
MOST DISTURBED PERIODS OCCURRED FROM 26/06-12UT. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. INCREASED ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WELL POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLES.
III. Event Probabilities 27 MAY to 29 MAY
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 MAY 168 Predicted 27 MAY-29 MAY 160/150/145 90 Day Mean 26 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAY 023/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAY 020/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAY-29 MAY 010/012-010/015-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 MAY to 29 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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