Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8 X-RAY BURST AT 28/1018UT AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN H-ALPHA LIMB EVENT (SURGE/SPRAY) NEAR NW 23. THIS EVENT MOST LIKELY OCCURRED IN RECENTLY DEPARTED REGION 9002. REGION 9017 (S13E29) REMAINS THE MOST COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS AREA HAS YET TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 9021 (N03E18) AND 9022 (S21E67) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE PROBABLE AND AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE. REGION 9017 IS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. INCREASED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLES.
III. Event Probabilities 29 MAY to 31 MAY
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 MAY 156
  Predicted   29 MAY-31 MAY  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        28 MAY 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY  012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY  012/025-015/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 MAY to 31 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm02%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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