Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 June 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C4/SN FLARE AT 14/0149Z FROM REGION 9042 (N20E58). THIS REGION NOW APPEARS TO BE A MODERATELY LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH SOME MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS IN THE TRAILER. REGION 9033 (N25W35) GENERATED A C1/1F FLARE AT 14/1349Z WITH A SHORT-LIVED TYPE II. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SUNSPOT WITH MODERATELY BRIGHT X-RAY EMISSION APPEARED AT N15E87 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9046. NEW REGION 9045 (S15E20) EMERGED NEAR THE NORTH END OF A LARGE FILAMENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS. THE OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FILAMENT NEAR NEW REGION 9045 MAY ERUPT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WERE UNUSUAL IN THAT VELOCITY WAS NEAR NOMINAL BUT TOTAL FIELD STRENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 15 NT AND DENSITY WAS HIGH AT APPROXIMATELY 55 P/CC. THIS COULD BE THE TRAILING END OF THE MASS EJECTION THAT IMPACTED THE EARTH LATE ON 12 JUN.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE EARLY PART OF 15 JUN. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE ON 15 JUN THROUGH 17 JUN. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUN to 17 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 JUN 201
  Predicted   15 JUN-17 JUN  195/192/190
  90 Day Mean        14 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUN  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUN  017/019
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUN-17 JUN  012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUN to 17 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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