Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. THOUGH FEW FLARES
OCCURRED, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF NEW FLUX EMERGED, AS EVIDENCED BY
FOUR NEW REGIONS THAT WERE NUMBERED. THE REGIONS ARE: 9071 (N22W23),
9072 (N15E16), 9073 (S21E44), AND 9074 (N10E64). THERE ARE 13
REGIONS ON THE DISK, WITH REGION 9070 (N17E29) THE LARGEST AND MOST
COMPLEX. THERE WAS A TYPE II SWEEP ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE FROM REGION 9068 (S19E11) AT 04/2243Z. THAT EVENT WAS
DEVOID OF ANY X-RAY ENHANCEMENT, AND DID NOT APPEAR TO SPAWN AN
EARTH-DIRECTED CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE FEW ACTIVE
PERIODS WERE RELATED TO HOUR-LONG INTERVALS OF SOUTHWARD
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD ORIENTATION.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EFFECTS OF
A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM ARE DUE, FROM AN EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH
CORONAL HOLE NOW LOCATED MID-WAY IN THE WESTERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JUL 169 Predicted 06 JUL-08 JUL 175/180/185 90 Day Mean 05 JUL 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL 010/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL 015/015-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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