Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 July 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9077 (N16E55) PRODUCED AN M5/1N AT 09/0723Z. OUT OF THE 13 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, REGION 9077 IS THE LARGEST WITH AN AREA OF 660 MILLIONTHS. A WEAK OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 09/1117Z (ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED 800 KM/S). NEW REGION 9079 (S29E65) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 9070 (N19W24) AND REGION 9077 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE HALO CME OBSERVED 07 JULY.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 JUL 211
  Predicted   10 JUL-12 JUL  215/220/220
  90 Day Mean        09 JUL 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  010/015-025/028-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%60%60%
Minor storm05%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%60%60%
Minor storm10%35%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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