Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9097 (N10E13)
HAS PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT AND REGION 9087 (S11W54) HAS BEEN THE
SOURCE OF SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT NEARS WEST LIMB. LESSER
FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9095 (N25W66), 9090 (N13W20),
AND 9085 (N14W75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF SEVERAL ACTIVE
REGIONS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES NEAR EARTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ON-GOING PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD
APPEARS TO BE LITTERED WITH IRREGULAR, MINOR FEATURES PROBABLY
ORIGINATING WITH THE CONTINUING SOLAR ACTIVITY OF THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A SMALL PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 23/1320Z WAS DECLARED OVER AT
23/2310Z AS FLUX VALUES HAD DECLINED BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR SUCH
EVENTS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF A MINOR STORM AS REMNANTS OF VARIOUS SOLAR EVENTS CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE AS A
SOURCE IS A LONGER DURATION M3 EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 22/1117Z WHOSE
IMPACT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE ON 24 JULY. A NEGATIVE POLARITY
CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO SIX DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JUL to 26 JUL
| Class M | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 JUL 217 Predicted 24 JUL-26 JUL 210/200/190 90 Day Mean 23 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL 011/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL 015/018-020/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JUL to 26 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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