Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9125 DISPLAYED
SIGNIFICANT DECAY. NEW REGION 9139 (S11E23) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS EVENT
POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 AUG to 23 AUG
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 AUG 152 Predicted 21 AUG-23 AUG 145/140/130 90 Day Mean 20 AUG 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 AUG 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG 005/008-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 AUG to 23 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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