Viewing archive of Monday, 28 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9143 (S19E20) PRODUCED
AN C3/1N EVENT AT 28/1704Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW AND IS THE LARGEST REGION OUT OF THE
TEN SPOTTED REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE SOLAR DISK. THREE NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9147 (N04E67), 9148 (S20E47), AND 9149
(N10E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 9143 AND 9144 (N26W24) REMAIN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY
OF THE FORECAST. POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS MAY ALSO BE
OBSERVED DURING NIGHTTIME SECTORS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY THE
INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 AUG 160 Predicted 29 AUG-31 AUG 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 28 AUG 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG 012/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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