Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S MOST SIGNIFICANT X-RAY EVENT WAS A LONG DURATION C4 EVENT FROM 29/2235Z TO 30/0028Z. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED CME DIRECTED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHICH WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 29/2354Z AND THE C3 FIELD OF VIEW AT 30/0042Z. DISK ACTIVITY WAS APPARENT IN EIT IMAGES BETWEEN REGIONS 9148 (S19E18) AND 9143 (S18W06). ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REGION 9149 (N11E44) IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 330 MILLIONTHS. THE GROUP APPEARS TO BE STABLE AT THIS TIME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACE INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF A HIGH-SPEED, POSITIVE-POLARITY, CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE FLOW SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING SLOWLY AS EVIDENCED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE VELOCITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH (GREATER THAN 1000 PFU) DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 AUG 165
  Predicted   31 AUG-02 SEP  168/168/165
  90 Day Mean        30 AUG 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  021/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  018/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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