Viewing archive of Friday, 8 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS THE LONG DURATION C7/SF FROM REGION 9151 (N13W61), WHICH COMMENCED AT THE END OF LAST PERIOD AND PERSISTED INTO THIS ONE. AN ASSOCIATED TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS SUBSEQUENTLY REPORTED, AS WAS A PARTIAL HALO CME FROM SOHO/LASCO. TWO OTHER MINOR C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED TODAY, ONE FROM REGION 9151, AND ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY COULD STILL OCCUR FROM REGIONS 9151, 9149 (N14W78), OR 9154 (S17W49) BEFORE THEY ROTATE OFF THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ONE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 0900-1200 UTC. GREATER-THAN-TWO MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT ENHANCED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A WEAK CORONAL HOLE. THE RECENT CME ACTIVITY, DISCUSSED IN SECTION IA ABOVE, DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 SEP 163
  Predicted   09 SEP-11 SEP  160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        08 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  012/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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