Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 SEP 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C8 FLARE AT 22/2350 UTC. EIT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS EVENT WAS DUE TO ACTIVITY BEHIND THE NW LIMB.
ELSEWHERE, REGION 9169 (N11E04) REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED TO SEVERAL LESSER
C-CLASS SUBFAINT FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND A DISAPPEARING
11-DEGREE SOLAR FILAMENT, THOUGH WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF ANY CME
ACTIVITY OF SIGNIFICANCE. REGIONS 9166 (S11W44) AND 9167 (N14W11)
WERE ALSO SOURCES OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169 REMAINS A LIKELY SOURCE OF ISOLATED MAJOR
FLARE ACTIVITY, AND REGION 9166 A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF MODERATE
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE,
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS AND ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING ON DAYS TWO AND THREE, DUE TO THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF A
FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. MODERATE ENHANCEMENTS OF
GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE EXPECTED
TO RECUR DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 SEP to 26 SEP
Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 SEP 225
Predicted 24 SEP-26 SEP 225/225/220
90 Day Mean 23 SEP 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP 006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP 007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP 010/010-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 SEP to 26 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
VII. COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
All times in UTC
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