Viewing archive of Monday, 25 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9166 (S12W70)
PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 25/0053Z AND SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS FLARES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS UNDERWENT SLOW DECAY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT MAINTAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY. REGION 9169
(N11W22) PRODUCED AN M1 FLARE AT 25/0215Z WITH MODERATE CENTIMETRIC
BURSTS INCLUDING A 450SFU TENFLARE. A CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED. SOME
DECAY WAS NOTED IN THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION WHICH
NOW MEASURES 1400 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 9166 AND 9169 WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE LIKELY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SOUTHWARD BZ AND ENHANCED SOLAR WIND SPEED PRODUCED OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT MOSTLY MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE PERIODS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO FROM AN EXPECTED CME PASSAGE FROM TODAY'S M1
FLARE IN REGION 9169 AT 02/0215Z. A RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 SEP to 28 SEP
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 SEP 226 Predicted 26 SEP-28 SEP 220/210/200 90 Day Mean 25 SEP 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP 017/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP 015/015-020/020-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 SEP to 28 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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