Viewing archive of Monday, 2 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9177 (N31W54) produced an M1/1n flare at 02/1801Z; another uncorrelated M1 occurred at 02/0013Z. Region 9176 (S09E05) produced a C4/Sf at 02/0257Z that was followed by a faint CME seen in LASCO imagery. New regions 9181 (S32E64) and 9182 (S03E72) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions predominated, with unsettled to active conditions from 12Z to 21Z during a prolonged period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storming on day two and three. Effects of a recurrent coronal hole are expected to begin tomorrow. One of the many solar events of the past two days, including today's CME, could bring transient related activity on day two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 203
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  200/200/190
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  012/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
VII. Comments Effective 2 Oct 2000, SEC will issue its text products in mixed case vs. all upper case. This change will be visible on all SEC product delivery systems except for teletype circuits. Only the case of the text in each product will change, not the format or spacing within the product. For details see our website at SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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