Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 9218 (N18E39) emerged early in the period, then showed
significant growth as it produced isolated C-class subflares. It was
classed as a simply-structured D-type spot group as the period
ended. Region 9212 (N10E22) showed an increase in spot count and a
slight increase in magnetic complexity. It produced a single
subflare during the latter half of the period. The remaining spot
groups were stable. Four new spot groups were numbered today
including Regions 9217 (S23W45), 9218, 9219 (N06E66), and 9220
(N08E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9212 and 9218 could produce isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels during the first two
days. Active levels will be possible on the final day due to coronal
hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 204 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/010-007/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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