Viewing archive of Monday, 5 February 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9335 (N08E40) produced a C8/1F at 05/1520Z. Minor centimetric radio bursts and a Type II sweep accompanied this flare. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Regions 9327 (N19W73) and 9334 (N12E27). Moderate growth in the size and complexity of Region 9339 (S11E62) was also noted. New Region 9340 (S13E05) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M flare in Regions 9334 and 9339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, as effects from a high speed coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 165
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  168/170/175
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  010/007-007/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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