Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Overall,
activity increased considerably during the period. Two M-class
events were reported. An M1/Sf flare with an accompanying Type II
radio sweep occurred at 24/0138 UTC from Region 9376 (S13W90) as it
was rotating over the western limb. Region 9390 (N15E19) produced a
long duration M1/2F event at 24/1955 UTC. Other active regions of
note were 9389 (S13E26), 9393 (N20E54), and 9397 (S09E76). Four new
regions were numbered: 9394 (N09E48), 9395 (S12E63), 9396 (S06W04),
and 9397. The Pentiction 10.7 cm Flux reading of 219 was flare
enhanced by the M1/2F long duration event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9389, 9390, and 9393 could produce isolated
major event level flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 219 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 012/012-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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