Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9704 (S18W10)
continued to produce C-class subflares. This region maintains most
of its sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W45) is
decaying and has not produced significant activity. New Region 9711
(S16W23) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 remains the most likely candidate for
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The CME that
elevated activity levels yesterday has passed. The greater than 10
MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit has ended (start 19/1230,
peak 34 pfu at 20/0010, and end 20/1420 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 185 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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