Viewing archive of Friday, 23 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels. Following yesterday's M3/2B flare from Region 9698 (S24W82), a major flare event occurred in Region 9704 (S17W51). This M9/2n long duration event peaked at 22/2330 UTC, and was associated with a 9700 sfu tenflare, type-II and type-IV radio sweeps, and several erupting filaments in the vicinity of the flare site. A subsequent full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery, and energetic proton flux levels were also significantly enhanced by this event, adding to the above-threshold fluxes already caused by the prior flare. Most other activity for the remainder of the period was limited to weak C-class flares. New Region 9715 (N07E80) was numbered as it rotated into view on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9704 remains a potential source for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single active period was observed at Boulder during 23/1200-1500 UTC. Energetic proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was on the rise at the beginning of the period, and achieved event thresholds for 100 MeV integral flux above 1 pfu at 22/2250 UTC, and 10 MeV integral flux above 10 pfu at 22/2320 UTC. Both events remain in progress, with maximum 100 MeV integral flux of 4 pfu observed at 23/0850 UTC, and maximum 10 MeV integral flux of 4800 pfu at 23/1400 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active levels within 24 hours, and remain at predominantly active levels for the next three days. Isolated minor and major storm periods are possible. These increases are expected in response to the various CME episodes of the last three days. The energetic proton events are expected to persist. The 100 MeV integral flux levels are expected to drop below threshold within 24 hours, while the 10 MeV integral flux levels are expected to remain above threshold for at least 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton99%95%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 177
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  012/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  020/020-040/050-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%35%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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