Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9749 (S08E43)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 21/2152 UTC. Three additional optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed during the period. Region
9742 (N10W16) continues to be the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk. This region was stable and appears to
have slightly decreased in areal coverage during the period. A
15-degree filament near S19E26 disappeared sometime between 22/0108
UTC and 22/0225 UTC. A second, smaller, filament disappeared near
N15E49 between 22/1636 UTC and 22/1653 UTC. New Regions 9752
(S14W19) and 9753 (S20E67) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9742 remains capable of producing
M-class flares and there is a chance for an isolated major flare
from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions on days two and three of the
period as a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to become
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 243 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 245/250/250 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 008/010-010/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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