Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9775
(S06W99) produced isolated C-class subflares as it crossed the west
limb. Region 9782 (N06W08) showed a minor increase in area, but
produced no flares. It retained a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity with mixed polarities evident in its leader spots. Region
9785 (N10E01) showed spot growth and a minor increase in magnetic
complexity within its trailer portion, but produced no flares. New
Region 9787 (S08E85) rotated into view during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9782 and 9785 appear capable of
producing isolated low-level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached high levels during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 212 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 008/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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