Viewing archive of Friday, 15 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few, low-level C-class subflares occurred during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from Region 9825 (N14W13), which is currently largest sunspot group on the disk. Region 9825 is showing signs of decay and simplification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is still a chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 9825.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled tomorrow as there is a possibility for short-lived effects from a favorably positioned, but small coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with occasional active periods are expected on the 2nd and 3rd days as a response to yesterday's partial halo CME from the southeast part of the solar disk.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 195
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  190/185/185
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-015/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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