SpaceWeatherLive .com
Real-time auroral and solar activity

Viewing archive of Friday, 15 February 2002

Solar activity report

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few, low-level C-class subflares occurred during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from Region 9825 (N14W13), which is currently largest sunspot group on the disk. Region 9825 is showing signs of decay and simplification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is still a chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 9825.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled tomorrow as there is a possibility for short-lived effects from a favorably positioned, but small coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with occasional active periods are expected on the 2nd and 3rd days as a response to yesterday's partial halo CME from the southeast part of the solar disk.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 195
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  190/185/185
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-015/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

Back to top

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 01:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu
Trondheim
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON, Winnipeg, MB
Tampere

Latest news

Latest forum messages

CMEs from March 16-17 and small CH 225AR4028 17Aurora- with positive BZ and negative BY 39Filaments and prominences 738Changelog/Featurelog 167
More topics

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

01:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 01:36 UTC

alert

00:18 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 101GW at 01:06 UTC

Friday, 21 March 2025
23:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:30 UTC

alert

23:12 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 77GW at 00:01 UTC

19:39 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 53GW at 20:34 UTC

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/02/23X2.0
Last M-flare2025/03/21M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/14Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
March 2025138.4 -16.2
Last 30 days140.3 -10.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X1.56
22024M4.3
32000M2.86
42002M2.37
52001M2.28
DstG
11990-104G1
21989-96G2
31958-85G2
41979-81G3
51973-57G2
*since 1994

Social networks