Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest
event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C9.4 flare at
02/0050 UTC. No resulting CME activity was apparent in available
imagery from SOHO/LASCO. Region 9887 (N02E11) was a dominant source
of numerous, lesser C-class flares throughout the period. This
region has grown appreciably in size and retains moderate magnetic
complexity. Three new regions were numbered today: 9890 (S15W49),
9891 (S08W08), and 9892 (N05E63), all appearing small and relatively
simple in structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9887 appears to be a likely source for
continued C-class and potential M-class flare activity. Region 9885
(N13W14) also retains sufficient size and complexity for potentially
significant flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. High speed stream effects
from a favorably positioned coronal hole continued, but showed signs
of a gradual waning trend throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods are possible in local nighttime sectors
during the next 12-24 hours as high speed stream effects continue to
wane. A chance for moderate to high flux levels of greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit exists for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 206 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 210/205/205 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 010/010-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Norilsk, VorkutaLatest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
AR4046 127Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1657Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 48Large Coronal Hole 25 178LASCO Data Not Updating 5
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
00:00 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.79 flare
Friday, 28 March 2025
23:36 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.04)
21:24 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 51GW at 21:59 UTC
19:45 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.16 flare
19:27 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.1)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/28 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 128.3 -26.4 |
| Last 30 days | 128.3 -23.7 |