Viewing archive of Friday, 26 April 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low with very isolated low C-class activity observed. Region 9912 (N11W78) continues to slowly decay as it approaches the west limb. Regions 9914 (N04W25), 9915 (N11W12), and 9919 (N12E33), exhibited minor growth. The remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or in decay. A significant segment of the large E-W filament centered near S32W12 disappeared late in the period. It is too early to confirm if a CME accompanied this filament eruption.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated low c-class flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 21/0225Z, and peaked on 21/2320Z at 2520 pfu, ended today at 26/0715Z. The 10 MeV proton flux remains elevated at near 5 pfu, but continues to slowly decline.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled with isolated active periods. A recurrent coronal hole is moving into a geoeffectively favorable position; expect disturbed conditions to develop this period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 163
  Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  012/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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