Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9948 (S22E50)
produced a C3.7 flare at 12/0953 UTC. Region 9934 (S16W72) remains
the largest and most complex region on the disk. A slight decay in
area coverage was observed in Region 9934. Region 9937 (S08W50) has
developed a weak beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in its
trailing spot. New Region 9951 (N10E68) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 and Region 9937 have the potential for
M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast period
due to CME effects from the M1/Sf flare on 11/1132 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 183 Predicted 13 May-15 May 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 12 May 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 020/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 012/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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