Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9961 (S21W17) produced a C4/Sf flare at 26/1356 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. It appeared to simplify and may have lost the delta in its intermediate spots. Region 9963 (N14W03) showed minor spot growth, but remained simply-structured. It produced a C-class subflare early in the period. Region 9957 (N10W58) was quiet as it continued to gradually decay and simplify. However, a weak delta magnetic configuration persisted within its northern spots. Region 9960 (N15W30) was quiet as it slowly decayed and simplified. New Region 9970 (N05E54) emerged just to the south of Region 9969 (N09E55). It appeared to be in a growth phase as it produced occasional subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare. There is a slight chance for major flare activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M40%40%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 183
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        26 May 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  007/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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