Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past day was a long-duration C3 at 05/0945 UTC. This x-ray flare seems to be related to activity in Region 9979 (S30E11) and was followed by a faint Earth-directed CME. Region 9973 (S16E29) remains the largest sunspot group presently on the disk. It is slowly decaying and has not produced significant activity in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9973 appears to be the most likely candidate for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Increased activity may occur on 07 to 08 June in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jun 159
  Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  013/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/008-015/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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