Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3 at 05/0945 UTC. This x-ray flare seems
to be related to activity in Region 9979 (S30E11) and was followed
by a faint Earth-directed CME. Region 9973 (S16E29) remains the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk. It is slowly decaying
and has not produced significant activity in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9973 appears to be the most likely candidate for
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Increased activity may
occur on 07 to 08 June in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 159 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 008/008-015/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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