Viewing archive of Monday, 1 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were
observed throughout the period. Region 19 (S18E50) now exceeds 600
millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta configuration.
Despite its obvious complexity, this region was relatively quiet.
Region 17 (S19W37) is in a slow growth phase and is developing some
mixing. Another impressive coronal mass ejection was observed off
the SE limb today associated with a prominence eruption at 01/1300Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 17 and 19 both have potential for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated minor storm
periods were observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes. These disturbed conditions are
likely to subside by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 147 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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