Viewing archive of Monday, 29 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 44
(S21W24) produced four M-class flares during the period: an M2 at
28/2312 UTC, an M1 at 29/0023 UTC, an M4/1f at 29/0238 UTC
associated with a 380 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep, and a
long-duration M4 at 29/1044 UTC. The M4 flare at 29/1044 UTC may
have been associated with a partial-halo CME. Region 44 showed a
slight increase in sunspot area in its trailer portion. However, the
region simplified slightly as the delta magnetic configuration
within its intermediate spots showed signs of decay. Region 39
(S11W18) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. It
remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic
configurations within its leading and trailing spots, though the
trailing delta may be decaying. Region 43 (N12W26) remained in a
gradual growth phase and produced a C5/Sf flare late in the period.
Region 50 (S07W06) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1941 UTC as it
continued to increase in area and complexity. A magnetic delta may
have formed within its intermediate spots. New Region 55 (N14E75)
was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 39 and 44 are expected to produce
M-class flares. Either region could produce a major flare during the
period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the
period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the first half of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated a shock
passage at L1 at 29/1241 UTC followed by a weak sudden impulse (SI)
at Earth at 29/1330 UTC (9 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to active
levels following the SI.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 July decreasing
to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is expected
to increase to active levels on 01 August in response to today's
long-duration M4 flare. There is a chance for a proton event during
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 234
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 235/230/230
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 015/015-010/010-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 25% | 40% |
Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 30% | 45% |
Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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