Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69
(S08W39) produced three M-class events, the largest an M2.3 at
18/1005 UTC (optically correlated via SOHO/LASCO EIT195 imagery).
Region 69 has remained unchanged in area coverage and multiple
magnetic delta configurations. Spot count has increased to 74 spots
due to the slight dissolution to the large central penumbra region.
Region 79 (S22E04) has grown rapidly in area and spot count to 310
millionths and 38 spots. New Region 84 (S16E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
expected interplanetary shock from the M5/CME event on 16 Aug was
observed at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 18/1810
UTC. A corresponding sudden impulse of 27 nT was recorded on the
Boulder magnetometer at 18/1848 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 18/1420
UTC, reached a maximum value of 1590 pfu at 18/1655 UTC, and fell
below threshold value at 18/1905 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active levels with a chance of isolated
minor storming. Active levels are expected on day one of the
forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day
two and three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 241 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 245/245/230 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 025/025-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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