Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S08W58)
produced an X1/1b event at 21/0534 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. This region continues to produce the majority of
C-class and M-class events and maintains its beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 still posses the potential for an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm
conditions. The ACE satellite observed an extended period of
southward Bz in the solar wind from 20/2048-21/1247 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels are still
possible as a result of the solar activity from Region 69 over the
past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 220 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 220/215/215 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 034/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 012/015-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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