Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/1f flare from Region 125 (S08E55). An associated Type II
radio sweep and CME was observed with this flare, but the ejecta was
not earthward directed. Region 119 (S14W10) produced occasional low
C-class flares. This region continues to develop and a weak delta
configuration is now evident. Region 105 (S08W83) also produced
minor C-class flares as it rotates around the west limb. New Region
126 (S23E75) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Developing Region 119 has best potential for a low
M-class flare. There is still a small chance for a low M-class flare
from Region 105 on the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft just before 19/0600Z. Solar
wind speed gradually increased to over 750 km/s by late in the
period, but total magnetic field measurements and densities remained
very low. This disturbance is likely associated with the C8 flare
and CME observed on 17 September. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels through day
one. Unsettled conditions are expected to prevail after the current
disturbance subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 165 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/020-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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