Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class flares
occurred. Region 119 (S14W36) remains the most significant area on
the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 119 is expected to be the most likely source of
energetic flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 159 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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