Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W07) remains a
fairly large sunspot group with some mixed polarity spots but has
only produced low-level C-class flares over the past 48 hours.
Growth in the region has ceased and little change in appearance was
noted since yesterday. New Region 145 (N12E76) is rotating onto the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The sustained southward IMF experienced over the past two days
appears to be coming to an end. For the past few hours Bz has
returned to +/- 5 nT variations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active. Nighttime substorms are
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 165 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 021/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 015/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
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