Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only flare activity was a B8/Sf at 1125 UTC from newly
numbered Region 209 (S20E62). Region 207 (S19E31) continues to be
the largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region
210 (S09W77) emerged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 207.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. Solar
wind speeds continue to be enhanced, and the Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to hold at weakly negative
values. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed
coronal hole driven solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next three days due to
continued effects from the high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 146 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 145/155/160 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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