Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long duration C1 flare and CME occurred at 10/2124Z. SXI imagery confirmed that the likely source of this activity was just behind the west limb, probably old Region 274 (S05, L=225). Region 280 (S06W42) produced a C2 flare at 11/1743Z. No other significant activity or changes were observed in the remaining small and magnetically simple regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active period at higher latitudes between 11/0000 - 0300Z. Solar wind conditions, slightly elevated in recent days, have declined to normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 135
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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