Viewing archive of Friday, 28 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. There were several
C-class flares today: a C3.4 at 2344 UTC from an unnumbered region
on the West limb at N11, a C1.5 at 0033 UTC, a C1.7 at 0620 UTC, and
a C1.0 at 1250 UTC from Region 293 (S19E21). Region 296 (N12E76)
was newly assigned today. SXI images from GOES-12 show two new
regions behind the East limb at approximately N11 and S16.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The
co-rotating interaction region from yesterday was followed quickly
by a high speed coronal hole stream. At geosynchronous orbit, the
greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels as the high speed
coronal hole stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 125 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 130/135/145 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 015/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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