Viewing archive of Monday, 31 March 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares were observed from Regions 318 (S13W49) and 321 (N06W16). Region 323 (S08W29) maintained its moderate size and magnetic complexity, but was mostly stable this period. Region 319 (N13W57) underwent considerable decay over the past 24 - 36 hours. New Regions 327 (S07W12) and 328 (S03E14) were numbered today. No other significant developments were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for a low M-class flare from Region 323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels, with occasional major storm periods at high latitudes. The high speed stream that began early on 30 March continues. An extended period of southward Bz that began at around 1100Z, has continued through the end of the period and was responsible for the most disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Disturbed periods due to high speed stream effects will continue for the next 2-3 days.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 160
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  019/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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