Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr

Class M	35%	25%	30%
Class X	10%	05%	05%
Proton	10%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       05 Apr 137
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  135/130/120
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  013/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	40%	35%
Minor storm	15%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	45%	40%	35%
Minor storm	15%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	05%

VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

All times in UTC

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