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Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 May 2003

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S14W06) produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf flare at 01/1143Z. This region continues rapid growth and is now over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light. Increasing magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the region remains a beta-gamma spot group. Region 344 (N15W54) continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A 16 degree disappearing solar filament lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z. No CME was observed with this DSF. One new region was numbered today, Region 352 (S24E43).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and has the potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s. Periods of southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor storming and one period of major storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period with active to minor storm levels expected. On day two and day three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M60%60%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 149
  Predicted   02 May-04 May  145/140/130
  90 Day Mean        01 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  034/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  035/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm35%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active55%30%25%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:35 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON
Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (506.6 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (21.12nT), the direction is slightly South (-7.89nT).

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