Viewing archive of Friday, 30 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 365 (S07W59) remains the
largest and most complex sunspot group on the disk with some decay
evident since yesterday. The largest flare in this region was a
C8/1n at 30/0650 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to moderate
to high. Region 365 remains capable of another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The field was mostly unsettled to active since about 30/0600 UTC
with a single minor storm period from 30/1500-1800 UTC. The CME
associated with the X1 flare early on 29 May was apparently observed
to encounter the ACE spacecraft at about 30/1600 UTC. The shock in
solar wind parameters was not strong and an SI was not clearly
observed by ground magnetometers. The proton event at greater than
10 MeV has ended: 28/2335 UTC start, 121 pfu peak at 29/1530 UTC,
and 30/0110 UTC end.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels as the
current CME passes.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 117 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 059/089 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 035/060 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 025/040-015/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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