Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
three, low-level C-class flares from Region 410 (S12E28). This group
showed emerging flux and has developed some magnetic complexity.
However, the field intensity and sunspot area are still relatively
small. Region 409 (N16E27) continues to be the largest group on the
disk but showed overall decay and some simplification. Region 409
was quiet and stable during the past 24 hours. Two new regions were
assigned today: Region 412 (N16E19) and Region 413 (N18E49).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There continues to be a chance, however, for an
isolated M-class event over the next three days. Region 409 is the
most likely source for energetic flares, but Region 410 might also
produce an M-flare if the current growth trend continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to major storm levels. An
initially active field attained storm levels after 0300 UTC and
continued at storm levels through 1500 UTC. Conditions returned to
active levels from 1500 UTC through the end of the period. The
increase in activity was associated with a slight increase in solar
wind speed (600 to 650 km/s) and a noticeable increase in total
magnetic field in the solar wind (ranging from 10 to 15 nT). The
solar wind signatures are consistent for the most part with a high
speed solar wind stream originating from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with minor storm periods during the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance persists. A decrease to
unsettled to active is expected on the second and third days as the
high speed solar wind should gradually decline.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 133 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 015/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 025/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 020/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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